ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ (ZION)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Zions delivered EPS $1.48, up 8% YoY but down QoQ, with core operating leverage strong; EPS was negatively impacted by elevated credit provision and a $0.06/share CVA loss . Versus S&P Global consensus, EPS beat ($1.48 vs $1.394*), while revenue missed ($812M* vs $841M*) — a mixed headline set. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Net interest margin expanded 11 bps QoQ to 3.28% (seventh consecutive quarter of expansion); efficiency ratio improved to 59.6% as revenue growth outpaced expense growth .
- Credit was the primary overhang: $50M charge-off and $10M specific reserve tied to two related C&I loans with apparent irregularities; management emphasized this as an isolated incident and initiated legal actions to pursue guarantors .
- Deposits (ex-brokered) grew 1.7% QoQ at period end; brokered deposits declined; cost of deposits edged down to 1.67% and total funding costs fell 5 bps QoQ .
- Outlook (3Q26 vs 3Q25): management guides to slightly-to-moderately increasing loans, moderately increasing NII and adjusted fee income, and moderately increasing adjusted OpEx with expected positive operating leverage; board declared a $0.45 common dividend (up from $0.43 in Q2) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Net interest margin expanded to 3.28% (+11 bps QoQ; +25 bps YoY), supported by earning asset mix, fixed-rate asset repricing, and lower funding costs .
- Operating efficiency improved: adjusted PPNR up 11% QoQ and 18% YoY; efficiency ratio improved to 59.6% from 62.2% in Q2 and 62.5% a year ago .
- Deposit trends constructive: period-end customer deposits up $1.2B QoQ; brokered deposits down; total funding costs declined to 1.92% .
Management quotes:
- “We’re pleased with the Company’s core earnings… adjusted pre-provision net revenue grew 18% over the prior year period… tangible book value per share grew 17%” .
- “Net interest margin expanded by 11 basis points to 3.28%… The efficiency ratio improved to 59.6%” .
- “Total funding costs declined by five basis points during the quarter to 1.92%” .
What Went Wrong
- One-off credit event: $50M charge-off and $10M reserve on two related C&I loans, raising net charge-offs to 0.37% annualized (vs 0.07% in Q2 and 0.02% in 3Q24) .
- Net CVA loss of $11M reduced EPS by $0.06/share; methodology update and market changes were cited as drivers .
- Spot loan balances contracted $531M QoQ, driven by runoff/paydowns in certain categories (e.g., NDFIs, CRE multifamily/office) despite solid production, tempering near-term loan growth .
Financial Results
Results vs S&P Global consensus (definitions follow S&P; revenue reflects S&P’s measure):
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Note: EPS beat in Q3 2025 (1.48 vs 1.394*), while revenue missed (812* vs 841*). Q2 showed EPS and revenue beats; Q1 had slight EPS miss and revenue miss. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment breakdown – Customer-related noninterest income:
Key KPIs
Non-GAAP and adjustments:
- Net CVA loss: $11M (negative $0.06/share); Adjusted fee income excludes CVA; adjusted PPNR up 11% QoQ, 18% YoY .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Harris Simmons (CEO): “Diluted earnings per share was $1.48 compared to $1.63 in the prior period and $1.37 in the year-ago period… adjusted pre-provision net revenue… improved 11% QoQ and 18% YoY” .
- On credit event: “We view this as an isolated situation… legal action has been initiated… excluding this loss, remaining net charge-offs were very benign” .
- CFO Ryan Richards: “Total funding costs declined by five basis points… period-end deposit balances grew by $1.1 billion… NIM expanded for the seventh consecutive quarter to 3.28%” .
- On long-term NIM: “~3.50% is ultimately where we expect to land… not suggesting this happens in 12 months” .
- On deposit reclass: “It is a reclass… slightly accretive to funding costs… enthusiastic about market receptivity” .
- On outlook: “Positive operating leverage expected as revenue growth outpaces noninterest expense growth” .
Q&A Highlights
- NDFI exposure and credit review: Management emphasized the event’s isolation, third-party review underway, local decisioning with centralized oversight, NDFI ~3% of loans and diversified (equipment leasing, capital calls, etc.) .
- NII guide and fixed-rate repricing: Expect 2–3 bps lift in earning asset yields embedded; remix from securities to loans; assumptions include rate cuts and conservative deposit beta/migration .
- Capital/buybacks: Considered when capital (incl. AOCI) aligns with peers (~10%); likely 12+ months away based on current projections .
- Deposit strategy: Migration to noninterest-bearing across affiliates; stable NIB mix; focus on net new clients via marketing and product initiatives .
- CRE: Longer lease-up times but improving; classified balances declining via payoffs/upgrades; low nonaccruals and delinquencies maintained .
Estimates Context
- EPS: Zions beat consensus in Q3 2025 ($1.48 vs $1.394*), continued YoY growth despite credit provision headwind. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Revenue: Zions missed Q3 2025 revenue consensus ($812M* vs $841M*). Note: S&P’s revenue measure may differ from company’s combined TE NII + noninterest ($872M) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Revisions: Capital markets fees (ex-CVA) +25% YoY; adjusted fee income +6% QoQ suggests estimate models may need to reflect stronger fee trends ex-CVA .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core trends positive: EPS beat, NIM expansion, and operating leverage improved despite a one-off credit hit; watch for continued NIM pacing and deposit cost declines .
- Credit event likely a transitory overhang; management asserts isolation and initiated recovery; ex-event, underlying charge-offs were 4 bps annualized — risk appears contained .
- Fee resilience ex-CVA: Adjusted customer-related fees +6% QoQ and +8% YoY; capital markets, loan syndications, and swaps are growth drivers .
- Funding mix improving: Brokered down, customer deposits up, total funding costs down — supportive of NII into 2026 under management’s scenarios .
- Capital build: CET1 11.3%; tangible book up 17% YoY; buybacks unlikely near term until capital (incl. AOCI) aligns with peers — expect capital return later rather than sooner .
- Guidance signals: Loans/NII/fees moderately increasing with continued tech and marketing investments; positive operating leverage targeted .
- Trading lens: Near-term volatility tied to litigation/recovery headlines and CRE/NDFI scrutiny; medium-term thesis rests on NIM trajectory, deposit mix stability, and fee growth ex-CVA .
Appendix: Additional Data Points
Dividends: Board declared common dividend $0.45 per share (payable Nov 20, record Nov 13) and preferred dividend (payable Dec 15) .
CRE portfolio summary (22% of total loans; $13.5B): granular, diversified; low nonaccruals and delinquencies; disciplined concentrations; office nonaccruals 3.6% with charges limited; classified CRE down $143M QoQ .
Rate sensitivity: Latent NII up 8.0% in flat rates; emergent (implied cuts) reduces by 6.6% vs latent; combined +1.4% modeled; parallel shocks -1.9% to +4.7% (12m) — not guidance .
Non-GAAP reconciliations: Efficiency ratio and adjusted PPNR schedules provided .